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US economic state at the end of 2026?
Closes Sun, Jan 31, 12:00 AM
Market history
Probability over time
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Soft Landing (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation <3.5%)
6
0
%
60%
Yes
6
0
¢
60¢
No
4
1
¢
41¢
Overheating (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%)
3
8
%
38%
Yes
3
8
¢
38¢
No
6
3
¢
63¢
Stagflation (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%)
4
%
4%
Yes
4
¢
4¢
No
9
6
¢
96¢
Slack (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation <3.5%)
<1%
Yes
<1¢
No
1
0
0
¢
100¢
About this market
US economic state at the end of 2026? | Riff