Who wins the Senate pending Hormuz Agreement by Oct 23 and oil below $80 before the midterms?

Closes Nov 4, 4:59 AM UTC

Market history

Probability over time

No Agreement or Oil ≥ $80; D Senate

73%

No Agreement or Oil ≥ $80; R Senate

27%

Agreement + Oil < $80; R Senate

<1%

Agreement + Oil < $80; D Senate

<1%

No Agreement or Oil ≥ $80; D Senate

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