US economic state at the end of 2026?

Closes Sun, Jan 31, 12:00 AM

Market history

Probability over time

Soft Landing (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation <3.5%)

62%

Overheating (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%)

34%

Stagflation (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%)

Slack (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation <3.5%)

<1%