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W
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by...?
September 30
1
%
1%
December 31
4
%
4%
L
Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
A
Anthropic
6
0
%
60%
S
SpaceX
3
5
%
35%
W
Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?
1
7
8
%
78%
2
1
9
%
19%
S
SpaceX Starship Flight Test 14
August 31
<1%
September 15
1
9
%
19%
P
Precipitation in Hong Kong in August?
<425mm
8
1
%
81%
425-450mm
1
6
%
16%
A
August 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC) (HIGHER STRIKES)
<1.30ºC
<1%
1.30–1.33ºC
<1%
M
Measles cases in U.S. in 2026?
↑3.5k
9
6
%
96%
↑4.5k
6
6
%
66%
P
Precipitation in Seattle in August?
<0.5"
4
6
%
46%
0.5-1"
4
0
%
40%
H
How many SpaceX launches in August 2026?
<13
1
1
%
11%
13
8
8
%
88%
F
FDA approves Retatrutide this year?
Yes
3
%
3%
No
9
7
%
97%
M
Measles cases in U.S. by August 31?
2800+
6
8
%
68%
2825+
5
4
%
54%
P
Precipitation in London in August?
<30mm
7
0
%
70%
30-40mm
1
7
%
17%
W
Will the Doge-1 Lunar Mission launch by...?
December 31, 2026
5
%
5%
June 30, 2027
5
4
%
54%
M
Measles cases in U.S. by September 30?
2900+
1
0
0
%
100%
3000+
9
7
%
97%
H
How many West Nile neuroinvasive disease cases will be reported among New York City residents in 2026?
Fewer than 20
3
5
%
35%
20 to 34
4
5
%
45%
H
How many SpaceX Starship launches reach space in 2026?
<5
4
8
%
48%
5-6
4
5
%
45%
S
September 2026 1st, 2nd, or 3rd hottest on record?
1st hottest
2
6
%
26%
2nd hottest
6
0
%
60%
9
9.0 or above earthquake before 2027?
Yes
7
%
7%
No
9
3
%
93%
H
How many large volcano eruptions (VEI ≥4) in 2026?
0
3
6
%
36%
1
4
4
%
44%
N
New pandemic in 2026?
Yes
6
%
6%
No
9
5
%
95%
H
How many Tornadoes in the US in August 2026?
<40
1
%
1%
40–59
5
%
5%
H
How many SpaceX launches in 2026?
<100
<1%
100-119
<1%
M
Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6) in 2026?
Yes
1
0
%
10%
No
9
0
%
90%
F
Further substantive progress on the Riemann Hypothesis by ___?
October 31, 2026
8
%
8%
December 31, 2026
9
%
9%