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OpenAI announces another Millennium Prize solution by...?
December 31, 2026
2
5
%
25%
December 31, 2027
5
4
%
54%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by...?
December 31
3
%
3%
Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
SpaceX
5
0
%
50%
Anthropic
4
7
%
47%
AI lab announces another Millennium Prize solution by...?
December 31, 2026
2
8
%
28%
December 31, 2027
7
0
%
70%
Will CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by ___?
December 31, 2026
3
%
3%
December 31, 2027
1
3
%
13%
U.S. enacts AI safety bill before 2027?
Yes
5
%
5%
No
9
6
%
96%
New pandemic in 2026?
Yes
5
%
5%
No
9
6
%
96%
How many more Millennium Prize Problems will AI solve in 2026?
0
7
2
%
72%
1
2
1
%
21%
Measles cases in U.S. by October 31?
3700+
1
0
0
%
100%
3800+
1
0
0
%
100%
Measles cases in U.S. in 2026?
↑4k
9
9
%
99%
↑4.5k
9
5
%
95%
Which math problems will AI solve in 2026?
Hodge Conjecture
2
8
%
28%
Birch and Swinnerton-Dyer
2
2
%
22%
SpaceX Starship Flight Test 15?
October 31, 2026
3
5
%
35%
November 30, 2026
7
8
%
78%
How many West Nile neuroinvasive disease cases will be reported among New York City residents in 2026?
Fewer than 20
<1%
20 to 34
2
3
%
23%
FDA approves skin cancer vaccine by...?
June 30, 2027
2
8
%
28%
September 30, 2027
4
2
%
42%
Anthropic announces a Millennium Prize solution by...?
December 31, 2026
2
5
%
25%
December 31, 2027
5
1
%
51%
Which Millennium Prize Problem will AI solve next?
Hodge Conjecture
3
5
%
35%
No solution by Dec 31, 2027
2
8
%
28%
How many SpaceX Starship launches reach space in 2026?
<5
3
9
%
39%
5-6
5
8
%
58%
How many SpaceX launches in 2026?
100-119
1
%
1%
120-139
9
%
9%
Chopsticks catch a Starship upper stage by...?
October 31, 2026
5
2
%
52%
SpaceX Starship fully reusable before 2027?
Yes
2
8
%
28%
No
7
3
%
73%
New Coronavirus Pandemic in 2026?
Yes
4
%
4%
No
9
6
%
96%
Human moon landing in 2026?
Yes
1
%
1%
No
9
9
%
99%
Rocket Lab’s Neutron Rocket Launch by December 31?
Yes
9
%
9%
No
9
2
%
92%
Further substantive progress on the Riemann Hypothesis by ___?
October 31, 2026
9
%
9%
December 31, 2026
1
6
%
16%
