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Fed rates
Treasuries
Fed Decision in December?
50+ bps decrease
<1%
25 bps decrease
1
%
1%
Fed Decision in January?
50+ bps decrease
1
%
1%
25 bps decrease
2
%
2%
How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?
0 (0 bps)
9
7
%
97%
1 (25 bps)
1
%
1%
Fed Decision in March?
50+ bps decrease
2
%
2%
25 bps decrease
4
%
4%
Another Fed rate hike in 2026?
Igen
7
2
%
72%
Nem
2
8
%
28%
Fed decisions (Oct-Jan)
Pause-Pause-Hike
9
%
9%
Pause-Pause-Pause
1
6
%
16%
How low will 5-year Treasury yield get before 2027?
Below 4.00%
3
%
3%
Below 4.10%
7
%
7%
How high will 5-year Treasury yield go before 2027?
4.90%
4
8
%
48%
5.00%
3
9
%
39%
Fed rate cut by...?
December 2026 Meeting
1
%
1%
January 2027 Meeting
1
0
%
10%
Fed decisions (Sep–Dec)
Hike–Pause–Hike
7
2
%
72%
Hike–Pause–Pause
2
8
%
28%
How low will 10-year Treasury yield get before 2027?
Below 4.9%
9
3
%
93%
Below 4.8%
7
3
%
73%
Fed emergency rate cut before 2027?
Igen
3
%
3%
Nem
9
7
%
97%
Fed Decision in April?
50+ bps decrease
9
%
9%
25 bps decrease
1
0
%
10%
What will Fed Rate hit before 2027?
↑ 5.5%
2
%
2%
↑ 5.25%
2
%
2%
How low will 30-year Treasury yield get before 2027?
Below 4.60%
5
%
5%
Below 4.80%
9
%
9%
How low will 2-year Treasury yield get before 2027?
Below 4.50%
6
0
%
60%
Below 4.40%
4
6
%
46%
How high will 2-year Treasury yield go before 2027?
4.75%
7
5
%
75%
4.80%
4
9
%
49%
How high will 10-year Treasury yield go before 2027?
5.3%
2
5
%
25%
5.4%
2
3
%
23%
What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026?
≤1.0%
<1%
1.25
<1%
Michael Barr officially out as Fed Governor by December 31?
Igen
2
9
%
29%
Nem
7
1
%
71%
Will Trump try to fire Powell as Fed Board Member by...?
October 31
1
%
1%
December 31
5
%
5%
How high will 30-year Treasury yield go before 2027?
5.40%
7
1
%
71%
5.50%
7
7
%
77%
How many dissent at the December Fed meeting?
0
6
4
%
64%
1
1
4
%
14%
Jerome Powell out of Fed Board by…?
December 31
1
2
%
12%
