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US-Iran ceasefire continues through...?
October 7
9
2
%
92%
October 15
7
9
%
79%
US announces end of Iranian blockade by...?
October 15
9
%
9%
October 31
2
6
%
26%
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...?
October 31
8
0
%
80%
November 30
6
9
%
69%
Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by...?
October 15
3
5
%
35%
October 31
6
1
%
61%
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by…?
October 31
3
%
3%
November 30
7
%
7%
Iran leadership change by...?
October 31
3
%
3%
November 30
6
%
6%
Iran charges Hormuz fees by...?
October 31
9
%
9%
December 31
2
4
%
24%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
Yes
1
4
%
14%
No
8
7
%
87%
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by...?
September 30
<1%
October 31
7
%
7%
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
Yes
7
%
7%
No
9
4
%
94%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31?
Yes
3
%
3%
No
9
7
%
97%
Iran full airspace closure by...?
October 31
8
%
8%
December 31
2
6
%
26%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
Yes
2
0
%
20%
No
8
1
%
81%
Crude Oil all time high by...?
September 30
<1%
December 31
1
2
%
12%
Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by...?
October 5, 2026
3
%
3%
October 31, 2026
2
5
%
25%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...?
October 31
2
%
2%
December 31
7
%
7%
Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by...?
October 31
1
8
%
18%
Mojtaba Khamenei public appearance by...?
October 31
7
%
7%
December 31
1
8
%
18%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by...?
December 31
5
%
5%
Israeli airspace closed by...? (Excluding Holiday Closures)
October 31
1
0
%
10%
December 31
1
9
%
19%
USD x Iranian rials End of December?
<2.0M
1
4
%
14%
2.0 - 2.5M
2
0
%
20%
Israel military action against Beirut by...?
October 31
1
4
%
14%
