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Fed rates
Treasuries
Fed Decision in October?
50+ bps decrease
<1%
25 bps decrease
<1%
Fed Decision in December?
50+ bps decrease
<1%
25 bps decrease
1
%
1%
Another Fed rate hike in 2026?
Yes
8
2
%
82%
No
1
9
%
19%
How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?
0 (0 bps)
9
7
%
97%
1 (25 bps)
2
%
2%
How high will 10-year Treasury yield go before 2027?
5.3%
9
2
%
92%
5.4%
7
8
%
78%
Fed Decision in January?
50+ bps decrease
1
%
1%
25 bps decrease
2
%
2%
No change or Hike 25 bps favored on October 27?
Yes
6
6
%
66%
No
3
5
%
35%
How high will 5-year Treasury yield go before 2027?
5.10%
8
7
%
87%
5.25%
5
1
%
51%
Fed decisions (Sep–Dec)
Hike–Pause–Hike
4
8
%
48%
Hike–Pause–Pause
1
7
%
17%
How high will 30-year Treasury yield go before 2027?
5.65%
9
1
%
91%
5.70%
8
2
%
82%
Jerome Powell out of Fed Board by…?
December 31
1
9
%
19%
How low will 5-year Treasury yield get before 2027?
Below 4.00%
2
%
2%
Below 4.10%
3
%
3%
Fed rate cut by...?
October 2026 Meeting
1
%
1%
December 2026 Meeting
3
%
3%
Fed decisions (Oct-Jan)
Hike-Pause-Hike
1
2
%
12%
Hike-Pause-Pause
1
6
%
16%
What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2027?
≤2.5%
1
%
1%
2.75%
3
%
3%
Will Trump try to fire Powell as Fed Board Member by...?
December 31
1
5
%
15%
How low will 10-year Treasury yield get before 2027?
Below 4.7%
2
2
%
22%
Below 4.6%
1
2
%
12%
What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026?
≤1.0%
<1%
1.25
<1%
What will Fed Rate hit before 2027?
↑ 5.5%
3
%
3%
↑ 5.25%
3
%
3%
How many dissent at the October Fed meeting?
0
3
9
%
39%
1
2
8
%
28%
How low will 30-year Treasury yield get before 2027?
Below 4.60%
2
%
2%
Below 4.80%
4
%
4%
How many dissent at the January Fed meeting?
0
5
2
%
52%
1
2
0
%
20%
Fed emergency rate cut before 2027?
Yes
2
%
2%
No
9
8
%
98%
Lisa Cook officially out as Fed Governor by...?
October 31
1
%
1%
November 30
2
%
2%
