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Fed rates
Treasuries
F
Fed Decision in September?
50+ bps decrease
<1%
25 bps decrease
1
%
1%
H
How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?
0 (0 bps)
8
5
%
85%
1 (25 bps)
1
1
%
11%
F
Fed rate hike in 2026?
Yes
4
7
%
47%
No
5
4
%
54%
F
Fed rate hike by...?
S
September Meeting
2
4
%
24%
O
October Meeting
3
9
%
39%
F
Fed Decision in October?
50+ bps decrease
2
%
2%
25 bps decrease
5
%
5%
F
Fed Decision in December?
50+ bps decrease
1
%
1%
25 bps decrease
7
%
7%
F
Fed decisions (Jun-Sep)
Pause–Pause–Pause
7
6
%
76%
Pause–Pause–Cut
1
%
1%
F
Fed decisions (Jul–Oct)
Pause–Pause–Pause
5
9
%
59%
Pause–Pause–Cut
3
%
3%
W
What will Fed Rate hit before 2027?
↑ 5.5%
3
%
3%
↑ 5.25%
3
%
3%
F
Fed emergency rate cut before 2027?
Yes
8
%
8%
No
9
3
%
93%
W
What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026?
≤1.0%
<1%
1.25
1
%
1%
F
Fed Decision in January?
50+ bps decrease
5
%
5%
25 bps decrease
1
4
%
14%
H
How high will 10-year Treasury yield go before 2027?
4.8%
6
4
%
64%
5.0%
3
0
%
30%
H
How low will 10-year Treasury yield get before 2027?
3.9%
1
1
%
11%
3.8%
5
%
5%
W
What will be the next Fed rate change?
Yes
4
7
%
47%
No
5
4
%
54%
L
Lisa Cook officially out as Fed Governor by...?
September 30
2
%
2%
October 31
3
%
3%
H
How many dissent at the January Fed meeting?
0
1
9
%
19%
1
2
0
%
20%
H
How many dissent at the December Fed meeting?
0
1
7
%
17%
1
1
7
%
17%
W
Will Trump try to fire Powell as Fed Board Member by...?
August 31
3
7
%
37%
September 30
4
3
%
43%
J
Jerome Powell in jail before 2027?
Yes
2
%
2%
No
9
8
%
98%
J
Jerome Powell federally charged by...?
D
December 31, 2026
4
%
4%
J
Jerome Powell out of Fed Board by…?
December 31
1
9
%
19%
