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B
Brazil Presidential Election
L
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva
6
7
%
67%
F
Flávio Bolsonaro
2
9
%
29%
B
Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 2nd Place
F
Flávio Bolsonaro
8
6
%
86%
L
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva
7
%
7%
R
Rio de Janeiro Governor Election Winner
E
Eduardo Paes
9
7
%
97%
D
Douglas Ruas
2
%
2%
C
Ceará Governor Election Winner
C
Ciro Gomes
7
1
%
71%
E
Elmano de Freitas
2
7
%
27%
P
Paraná Governor Election Winner
Sergio Moro
8
8
%
88%
Alexandre Curi
5
%
5%
W
Which candidates will advance to Brazil's presidential runoff?
L
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva
9
7
%
97%
F
Flavio Bolsonaro
9
0
%
90%
G
Goiás Governor Election Winner
D
Daniel Vilela
9
7
%
97%
M
Marconi Perillo
2
%
2%
W
Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Brazil election?
Yes
1
3
%
13%
No
8
8
%
88%
B
Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 3rd Place
R
Renan Santos
5
6
%
56%
R
Ronaldo Caiado
3
7
%
37%
S
São Paulo Governor Election Winner
T
Tarcísio de Freitas
9
7
%
97%
F
Fernando Haddad
3
%
3%
B
Bank of Brazil decision in November?
50+ bps increase
<1%
25 bps increase
<1%
M
Maranhão Governor Election Winner
E
Eduardo Braide
8
5
%
85%
O
Orleans Brandão
1
2
%
12%
B
Brazil Presidential Election First Round: Margin of Victory
L
Lula da Silva 15%+
5
%
5%
L
Lula da Silva 10-15%
2
7
%
27%
P
Pará Governor Election Winner
H
Hana Ghassan
4
7
%
47%
D
Dr. Daniel Santos
4
5
%
45%
B
Brazil Annual Inflation 2026
<3.00%
1
%
1%
3.00-3.49%
1
%
1%
F
Flávio Bolsonaro charged or arrested by September 30?
Yes
1
3
%
13%
No
8
7
%
87%
S
Santa Catarina Governor Election Winner
J
Jorginho Mello
9
6
%
96%
M
Marcelo Brigadeiro
3
%
3%
B
Brazil GDP Growth in Q2 2026 (QoQ)?
<0.0%
1
%
1%
0.0%–0.2%
2
3
%
23%
B
Brazil Chamber of Deputies Election Winner
P
PL
6
5
%
65%
U
UPB
3
4
%
34%
W
Who will Trump endorse for President of Brazil?
F
Flávio Bolsonaro
6
6
%
66%
R
Romeu Zema
9
%
9%
P
Paraíba Governor Election Winner
L
Lucas Ribeiro
7
5
%
75%
C
Cícero Lucena
2
2
%
22%
U
US expels a Brazilian diplomat by September 30?
Yes
7
%
7%
No
9
4
%
94%
B
Bahia Governor Election Winner
A
ACM Neto
5
0
%
50%
J
Jerônimo Rodrigues
4
6
%
46%
